Business Optimism slips as markets wait for inflation data

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Published Date 4/9/2024

Today's Mortgage Rate Summary

How Rates Move:

Conventional and Government (FHA and VA) lenders set their rates based on the pricing of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) which are traded in real time, all day in the bond market. This means rates or loan fees (mortgage pricing) moves throughout the day, being affected by a variety of economic or political events. When MBS pricing goes up, mortgage rates or pricing generally goes down. When they fall, mortgage pricing goes up.

Rates Currently Trending: Neutral

Mortgage rates are getting some support today. The MBS market worsened by -13 bps yesterday. This was not enough to increase mortgage rates or fees. The market experienced high volatility yesterday.

Today's Rate Forecast: Neutral

Business Optimism: The March NFIB Business Optimism Index dropped from 89.4 down to 88.5. Estimates were in the 90.2 range.

Treasury Auction: We kick off three days of dumping our debt into the marketplace with today's shorter term 3 year note auction at 1 pm ET.

The Fed: St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said that his "base case" for the Fed's path is still three cuts this year but left the door open by saying it would depend on the data.

Today's Potential Rate Volatility: Neutral

This morning markets bouncing back from previous losses. Volatility has started choppy but there isn't any scheduled big events that will increase volatility.

Bottom Line:

If you are looking for the risks and benefits of locking your interest rate in today or floating your loan rate, contact your mortgage professional to discuss it with them.

Source: TBWS

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