Markets turn focus to Jackson Hole

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Published Date 8/21/2017

Started this morning generally unchanged in the bond market. Stock index trading slightly better. There are no data points today. This week’s economic data focus is centered on the housing markets, with new and existing July home sales and July durable goods orders on Friday morning.

Most focus for the bond market this week is on the Jackson Hole economic symposium that brings world economists together to muse about economic issues. On Friday, both Janet Yellen and Mario Draghi will address the group. The main theme and concerns of central banks is discussing why inflation hasn’t begun to increase. Europe’s economies have been improving. The US unemployment rate at 4.3%, the lowest in years. In history, when employment was at 100% as it is now, inflation grabbed hold. That isn’t happening. Wages are stubbornly static. We have mentioned it before: the world for economists has changed from historical comparisons.

Pres. Trump will address the country tonight outlining his plan for the 16-yr. war in Afghanistan. He met with key advisors at Camp David last week to formalize a plan. Talk of more supporting troops being added. His predecessors weren’t successful, but Trump will give it a try. The United States invaded Afghanistan in October 2001 after the September 11 attacks on New York and Washington, and overthrew the Islamist Taliban government. But U.S. forces have remained bogged down there through the presidencies of George W. Bush, Barack Obama and now Trump.

No data today and mostly housing through the week.

The first meeting on re-doing NAFTA ended yesterday with a lot of different opinions. The three countries (US, Canada, and Mexico) said in a trilateral statement they had made “detailed conceptual presentations” of their positions and were working toward “an ambitious outcome” through a fast-paced schedule of negotiations.

The day of the Eclipse. Some will experience the whole sun block while others just see some darkness. If the groundhog comes out and doesn’t see his shadow, we will have six more weeks of summer?

Our technicals remain bullish, but not very strong. One or two things will have to happen to push these historic levels lower: the stock market retreat or some kind of "black swan" event that isn’t on anyone’s radar at the moment. Every day we read more comments that stocks are about to correct to some lower level, but so far, even with the cacophony increasing, the indexes are holding firm. Likely there won’t be much serious movement in stocks or bonds this week ahead of Jackson Hole on Friday. We don't believe we'll see much improvement this week.

This Week’s Calendar:

Tuesday
- 9:00 am June FHFA housing price index (+0.5%)
Wednesday
- 7:00 am weekly MBA mortgage applications
- 10:00 am July new home sales (610K units, unchanged from June)
- 10:30 weekly crude oil inventories
Thursday
- 8:30 am weekly jobless claims (+4K to 236K)
- 10:00 am July existing home sales (+0.9% to 5.57 mil from 5.52 mil in June)
Friday
- 8:30 am July durable goods orders (-5.7%, excluding the transportation orders +0.5%; the core, nondefense ex aircraft +0.5%)
- 10:00 am Janet Yellen and Mario Draghi at Jackson Hole speak

Source: TBWS

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