Published Date 8/14/2017
Geopolitical tensions eased over the weekend. The Pentagon commenting there should be more discussions and less hardball talk; somewhat the same sentiment that was expressed in many comments over the weekend. Last week, there was a huge increase in fears, although markets were not that unsettled. This morning, prior to the 9:30 AM EDT open in the stock market, the indexes were pointing to a strong opening. Media relaxing. Last week the DJIA saw a minor pullback (-135 and NASDAQ -95), Those were inconsequential moves on a percentage basis.
The overriding news this morning in markets is the relaxing of the rhetoric from North Korea and the US. Tensions eased as the idea of a mass war finally is sinking in. There is little North Korea can gain, and the US isn’t about to make a move unless provoked by a military action from North Korea.
The dollar a little stronger this morning. Crude oil unchanged, gold down a little after increasing $32.00 last week on safe hedging against all the geopolitical chatter.
Our technicals remain positive in the near term. However, with less angst over North Korea and at these historic lows, continued economic improvement and stocks climbing, there is little reason to expect rates will decline. The one solid support keeping rates from rising much now is the lack of inflation; last week both PPI and CPI data were absent of any increase. The present price of the FNMA 3.5 30 yr. coupon is 103.20, support at 103.00; resistance at 103.50.
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