Markets will be focused on the results of the FOMC today

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Published Date 7/30/2025

Today the FOMC meeting at 2 pm ET and Jerome Powell’s press conference are the main events.

ADP this morning reported July private jobs, thought to be +75K increased by 104K and June revised from -33K to -23K, it was the strongest increase since March, the survey also showed that year-over-year pay growth remained solid in July, at 4.4% for job-stayers and 7.0% for job-changers—unchanged for the fourth consecutive month.

Also this morning, Q2 GDP was expected at +2.5% but increased to +3.0% indicating the economy is holding on and improving from what had been expected. Q2 personal consumption spending at +1.4% year/year was what had been forecast. The 10 year note jumped from 4.33% yesterday to 4.36% and MBS prices declined 11 bps from yesterday’s 26 bp gain.

Early this morning MBA weekly mortgage applications last week were down 3.8% from the previous week that was up 0.8%; purchase applications -5.9% from 3.4% and refinance applications -2.7% unchanged from the decline the prior week.

While there is no rate cuts from the Fed today, the stronger economy leans to less chance of the Fed cutting rates in September at the next FOMC meeting; that said it’s a moving target and today’s data doesn’t tilt the table much. Friday the July BLS employment report will add more information.

At 9:30 am the DJIA opened quietly, +11, NASDAQ -80, S&P -19. 10 year at 9:30 am 4.38% +5 bps. FNMA 6.0 30 year coupon at 9:30 am -8 bps from yesterday’s close and +15 bps from 9:30 am yesterday.

At 10 am June pending home sales were thought to be +0.2% after increasing 1.8% in May.

Now we wait until this afternoon. The FOMC policy statement at 2 pm and Powell at 2:30 pm; the policy statement important but Powell’s press conference the headline today. There is more to come, tomorrow the Fed’s go to inflation report, PCE, inflation is expected to have increased based on forecasts.

Source: TBWS

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