Published Date 4/5/2024
Jobs, we got jobs. The March unemployment rates expected to be unchanged at 3.9% declined to 3.8%. NFP jobs thought to be +200K increased 303K (February revised from 275K to 270K), private jobs expected at 170K increased 232KK (February jobs revised from 223K to 207K). Average hourly earnings month/month +0.3% as expected but February revised from 0.1% to +0.2%; year/year earnings 4.1% as expected, down from 4.3% in February. The labor participation rate after sitting at 62.5% for months increased to 62.7%. Manufacturing jobs unchanged in March with forecasts of +7K, February manufacturing jobs revised from -4K to -10K. On Monday ISM reported manufacturing index at 50.3, the first index reading above 50.0, the pivot between expansion and contraction, this data calls that into question.
Payrolls increased to the highest in a year. In total the report adds to the view that the Fed will be in no hurry to lower rates, bringing more to the side of no cut in June. The economy is cooking, although so far, no trend of increasing inflation. Powell spoke Wednesday saying he saw rate declines later this year and was not inclined to react until inflation showed an easing. With today’s news showing month/month earnings at 0.3% up from 0.2% in February. This data will add to the increasing view the Fed may not cut rates in June.
The reaction in the bond markets as you can imagine, sent the 10 year note yield to its high of the last week at 4.40% (+8 bp) and initial MBS prices down 20 bps.
At 9:30 am the DJIA opened +23, NASDAQ +60, S&P +13. Not much of an opening given the data but goes to the point that the Fed may hold back rate cuts. The DJIA declined 530 points yesterday. At 9:30 am the 10 year note 4.39% +7 bps. FNMA 6.0 30 year coupon at 9:30 am +16 bps from yesterday’s close and -10 bp from 9:30 am yesterday.
The remainder of the day will be on Fed officials’ comments, there are three on the calendar.
At 3 pm February consumer credit, estimates at +$17.3B down from $19.5B in January. Our focus is on the revolving credit number, the use of credit cards.
The initial reaction to the employment report pushed MBS prices down 20 bps, by 10 am MBSs improved to -6 bps. The 10 year note on the reaction up to 4.40% +8 bps.
The fundamentals and technicals are in bearish conditions, but since employment at 8:30 am both the 10 year and MBSs have improved slightly.
Source: TBWS
All information furnished has been forwarded to you and is provided by thetbwsgroup only for informational purposes. Forecasting shall be considered as events which may be expected but not guaranteed. Neither the forwarding party and/or company nor thetbwsgroup assume any responsibility to any person who relies on information or forecasting contained in this report and disclaims all liability in respect to decisions or actions, or lack thereof based on any or all of the contents of this report.
THIS IS AN ADVERTISEMENT. This is not a commitment to lend. Offer of credit subject to credit approval. A and N Mortgage Services, Inc. 1945 N. Elston Ave. Chicago, IL 60642 p: 773.305.LOAN (5626) ANmtg.com NMLS No. 19291 For licensing information, go to: https://www.anmtg.com/licensing/ (Nationwide Mortgage Licensing System www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org)
NMLS: 19291
A and N Mortgage Services
1945 N. Elston, Chicago IL 60642
Company NMLS: 19291
Office: 773-305-5626
Cell: 312-961-4380
Email: neenav@anmtg.com
NMLS: 19291
Cell: 312-961-4380
9/20/2024
No significant news this morning, markets still digesting what the Fed means usi... view more
9/19/2024
While Realtors are often the in-the-trenches prognosticators of how to improve y... view more
9/19/2024
Initial Weekly Jobless Claims were lower (better) than expected, 219K versus est... view more
9/18/2024
Move over, garden hose – there's a new hero in town...... view more
9/18/2024
This afternoon is the widely anticipated FOMC rate cut. It will be the first cut... view more
9/17/2024
If Bob Dylan was right about "The times, they are a-changin’,” it’s time at last... view more
9/16/2024
These are the three areas that have the greatest ability to impact rates this we... view more
9/16/2024
Overnight the 10 year note yield declined 3 bps, by 8:30 am ET back to unchanged... view more
9/13/2024
Yesterday another day with little movement, overnight the 10 year note traded do... view more
9/12/2024
Ask any homebuilder about the challenge of designing floor plans and they will t... view more